The Straw that Breaks the Camel’s Back

The Straw that Breaks the Camel’s Back: What Are My Risks for Divorce?

At Symmetry Counseling, we work closely with many couples and continue to be fascinated by the dynamics of marriage, relationships, and emotional connection. Over time, we’ve learned that a wide range of factors can lead to divorce, from employment challenges to wedding expenses. The “straw that breaks the camel’s back” can appear in many forms, and it often surprises us how varied these triggers can be.

Many couples ask if the length of a marriage predicts its likelihood of ending. Unfortunately, there’s no simple formula to determine that.

Scientists have yet to quantify the risk of divorce by the number of years married as numerous personal, social, and emotional factors influence the outcome. Still, studies provide a general picture of when a marriage might face greater or lower risks over time.

Divorce Risk Factors by Length of Marriage

Year 1-2: High risk 

Eventually, the honeymoon and the honeymoon phase end. Your risk for divorce in year one is just as high as it is obvious. Typically, the first year of marriage is a challenging time, and it serves as an ideal opportunity to cut ties and move on before your lives become even more intertwined.

Additionally, prenuptial agreements typically take effect only after one year, which is another contributing factor. Studies show that most marriages that fail (approximately 10%) tend to do so within the first two years. Based on data from 11,000 divorce cases, men are more likely to cheat on their wives in this first stage of marriage – sorry, ladies! 

Year 3-4: Average risk

On average, couples typically begin having children in their first year of marriage. There is ample evidence that having children increases relationship stability and divorce risk. It’s not always the case that you are staying together for the kids – sometimes the kids are keeping you two together.

However, do not overestimate the security that a baby can bring to a marriage. With security, they also carry high levels of stress and turmoil – it’s all about how you resolve and recover from it that makes the difference.

One study of 522 couples found that the overall quality of the marriage tends to decline after the first four years. According to Kurdek, “most marriages start off with such high levels of quality that it can only go down.”

Year 5-8: High risk 

Heard of the “seven-year itch?” This phrase refers to the long-standing theory that relationship satisfaction declines after about seven years. However, census data indicate that marriages can stall after 7 years. Here are some stats that have developed over the years.

The average length of a marriage that ends in divorce

• 1920s: 6.6 years
• 1974: 7.5 years
• 1990: 7.2 years
• Today: The average length of marriage ends in divorce after 8 years. However, this extra year may be because it takes about a year to process the legal system for a divorce.

The reason this is such a risky time for marriage is that evolution may be at work. At this stage in a marriage, children are typically old enough to take care of themselves independently and have a good chance of surviving to adulthood. This gives couples a feeling that the children would be okay if they transitioned out of marriage.

Biologically speaking, the infant mortality rate decreases as the odds of divorce increase. There are also theories that “the seven-year itch” has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Studies have shown that a woman’s desire to cheat typically rises and peaks around year six – sorry, gents.

Year 9-15: Low risk

By this time, relationship expectations may have become more practical over the years. Additionally, by this time, there are typically no longer infants in the house, resulting in a decrease in stress. Research indicates that as children grow older, their relationship satisfaction tends to increase.

However, there is also evidence that divorce risk increases as children get older; thus, much of this can be taken with an open mind and a grain of salt. Couples that make it to their 10th anniversary “experience a lower divorce risk each subsequent year.”

Although studies report that 20% of marriages end within the first five years, this number increases by 12% within the first decade. Between 10 years and 15 years, the rate only increases by 8%, which leads us to believe that this is one of the states where your marriage is safest, between 10 and 15 years.

Year 15-20: Average risk

These days, many people marry in their 30s, which means year 20 puts them in their 50s. The idea of divorcing in your 50s has unfortunately become so common that, similar to the seven-year itch, it has even developed its own name: gray divorce, which is a term coined by Susan Brown of Bowling Green State University.

Similar studies have provided information that men and women over 55 are more likely to cheat. Many people reach a point where they feel as if they have spent the majority of their life unhappy and trying to make it work. Instead of continually trying with no result, they pivot and decide that they want to enjoy their remaining years differently.

What Does This Mean for Me?

Are you feeling anxious about your own marriage and relationship? Don’t fret! Remember that although there is truth behind them, these are just statistics, the data, and facts. Never forget that there are always outliers, and you very well may be one of them.

Consider the external factors and what is working against you and do everything you can to overcome the odds and strengthen your weak spots. So you have a history of cheating, then work on relationship intimacy and have discussions about each other’s needs and how well, or not well, they are being met.

You may be from a divorced family yourself, which causes your odds of divorce to be increased by 69%. Tread lightly and make a conscious effort not to rush into things, as parental divorce is “one of the highest risk factors for marital dissolution” (Amato & Deboer, 2001).

Insulate yourselves against the risks, and, most importantly, know your risk levels. Hopefully, this blog post has increased your understanding of the risks of divorce. It may also help you build self-awareness about the parts of your relationship that deserve more attention or care.

Above all, we remind ourselves to be gentle with one another. If we’re together, it’s because something special exists between us. Every word, every gesture, carries weight and meaning. Nurturing that connection with care and empathy helps us grow together.

Reference:

Vinopal, L. (2021). A year-by-year guide to your risk of divorce. Fatherly. Retrieved from: https://www.fatherly.com/love-money/twenty-year-guide-divorce-risk.